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In 2024, the market for Schuldschein loans reached a valued volume of EUR 22.5 billion, which represents a decline of 9% compared to the previous year. This cooling is primarily due to the changed interest rate landscape, but also to economic influences and a subdued willingness to invest. In addition, in contrast to previous years, fewer high-volume benchmark transactions were placed.
The interest rate peak phase appears to have passed for now. MidSwap rates will reach preliminary lows at the beginning of December 2024. The swap curve is around 20 bps below the start of the year and the 6 M EURIBOR has fallen by around 130 bps within a year. A slight increase in MidSwap rates in December could be interpreted as a precursor to a regenerated yield curve in 2025.
Spreads increased moderately over the course of 2024, with industrial spreads in particular reacting strongly to the economic situation. Despite these developments, spreads on the capital market remain solid. iTraxx Europe is stable in 2024.
Outlook 2025
A Schuldschein market volume of EUR 20 to 25 billion is forecast for 2025. Smaller transaction lot sizes are expected this year. With stable majorities, immediate political measures could improve the framework conditions and strengthen confidence in the economy.
