In the first quarter of 2024, the Schuldschein loan market recorded a valued volume of 4.2 billion euros from 28 transactions. This market volume was significantly below the previous year's volume (7.8 billion euros and 37 transactions) and is similar to the first quarter of the somewhat weaker pandemic year 2021.
Issuers in the first quarter of 2024 launched significantly fewer transactions with sustainable structures (ESG KPI links) compared to the last two years. A total of 82% of transactions came from issuers in Germany.
Investors continued to focus on less cyclical industries. The preferred terms were between 3 and 7 years. The comparison of final issue volume versus launch volume per broadly marketed transaction shows an increase of around 70%. This demonstrates the stable willingness of Schuldschein loan investors to invest.
Reference interest rates have been relatively slightly volatile since the beginning of the year.
With its decisions of 25.01., 07.03. and 11.04.2024, the ECB is maintaining key interest rates at the same level (main refinancing interest rate: 4.50%) — thus in line with the decisions of the US Federal Reserve FED.
The first interest rate cut due to weak economic activity in the euro area and on world markets and due to falling inflation can take place before summer (06.06.2024).
The interest rate curve is still inverted during short maturities. However, it is significantly flatter compared to the previous year. 3y 3.03% - 5y 2.85% - 7y 2.77% - 10y 2.76% - 20y 2.64% (MidSwaps as of 11.04.2024)
The short-term yield curve based on the 6-month EURIBOR is currently stable at 3.83%. (as of 10.04.2023)
The spreads of cash bonds vs. iTraxx generally provide information about the immense movements during the crisis.
Since Q4 2023, the spreads of cash bonds have been stabilized and relatively usually volatile. By way of comparison, 5-year investment grade cash bonds are currently around the previous year's level of around 70 bps.
Issuers must also expect risk premiums at the adjusted level of 2023 for 2024. This affects all sectors to varying degrees and demonstrates the economic weakness and increased refinancing costs for lenders.
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In the first quarter of 2024, the Schuldschein loan market recorded a valued volume of 4.2 billion euros from 28 transactions. This market volume was significantly below the previous year's volume (7.8 billion euros and 37 transactions) and is similar to the first quarter of the somewhat weaker pandemic year 2021. Issuers in the first quarter of 2024 launched significantly fewer transactions with sustainable structures (ESG KPI links) compared to the last two years. A total of 82% of transactions came from issuers in Germany.
